Upstream Zero
hypothesisH-22026-07-13status · open

More faithful commercial representations improve selection outcomes

The fidelity-pays hypothesis. It is also the company's own honesty condition: the commercial offering rests on the premise that understanding and improving representation fidelity is worth paying for because it improves outcomes. If this hypothesis fails, the research program loses its commercial logic — and by our own rules, that result would be published like any other.

Predictions — registered before results

  • Vendors whose representations survive independent fidelity checks will show better post-selection outcomes (fit, retention) than matched vendors whose representations do not
  • Evaluators given higher-fidelity representations will produce recommendations that buyers rate as better fits, measured after purchase

What would refute this

  • Measured selection outcomes that do not improve with representation fidelity
  • Evidence that persuasion volume, not verifiable substance, dominates selection outcomes even in evaluator-mediated channels